KHMER INTELLIGENCE

Khmer Intelligence (KI) is a non-government organisation whose objective is to collect sensitive information from non-easily accessible sources to help Khmer and foreign observers better follow and understand the situation in Cambodia. KI finds out what is behind the latest news and news to come. For security reasons KI must preserve anonymity for its informants. Information is classified according to five levels of reliability: Official or Semi-Official (1), Very Reliable (2), Reliable (3), Insistent Rumour (4), Rumour (5).
News compiled by KI are posted on www.khmerintelligence.org
For any further information, please contact samngat@khmerintelligence.org
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30 September 2002 

Funcinpec splits into three factions (1)
There are presently three factions within the disintegrating Funcinpec royalist party presided over by Prince Norodom Ranariddh:
1-     The “courtesans” who present themselves as unconditional supporters of Ranariddh and are in fact divided in two sub-groups: those who have no other choice than blindly following Ranariddh (e.g. Khek Vandy, the husband of Ranariddh’s sister Princess Norodom Bopha Devi), and those who are receiving instructions from the CPP in order to manipulate Ranariddh from within (You Hockry and his clan).
2-     The “new allies” who actively contributed to the abolition of the Monarchy in 1970 under the Lon Nol regime (Khy Taing Lim, Kol Pheng, Pok Than) and who, as opportunist politicians, will eventually defect to the CPP with which they have already developed a close cooperation.
3-     The “resistants” who led the military fight against the Vietnamese occupying army and the Hun Sen communist regime in the 80’s (Nhek Bun Chhay, Khan Savoeun, Kieng Vang) and who do not want Funcinpec to be associated any longer with the CPP. This group will likely join the Sam Rainsy Party before the 2003 parliamentary election.
In the newly publicized list of five nominees for the National Election Committee (NEC) selected by the Ministry of Interior, there are two persons who originate from Funcinpec versus three who are former CPP members. But the two from Funcinpec also enjoy the support of the CPP since they belong to Funcinpec’s first faction (Ngor Chhay Lieng, a close aide to You Hockry) and second faction (Sun Chum Bo chosen by Kol Pheng in her capacity as representative of an obscure NGO). Therefore the new NEC will be made up exclusively of pro-CPP elements, which bodes ill for the freedom and fairness of the forthcoming election.      

29 September 2002

Opposition to Hun Sen gets stronger within the CPP (2)
A meeting about a week ago of the Permanent Committee (formally Politburo) of the CPP revised a top leadership reshuffle scheme agreed upon last August (KI, 22 August 2002). Hun Sen is facing stronger opposition from his peers and is no longer assured to be the CPP nominee for the position of Prime Minister for the July 2003 parliamentary election.
After the retirement of Chea Sim early next year, Hun Sen (currently Vice-President) will take over as CPP President, Say Chhum (currently Secretary General) will be Vice-President, and Sar Kheng will be Secretary General. But the majority of the Permanent Committee members favor Say Chhum as candidate for the premiership. Hun Sen, who wants to remain Prime Minister at all costs, has lost a battle but has not lost the war sustaining his ambition. The outcome of the war will depend on several factors:
    - The position of Vietnam, which seems to be not happy with Cambodia moving closer and closer to China but which is also concerned by the possibility of the CPP getting weaker and losing control of the situation in Cambodia because of internal divisions.
    - The possibility for Hun Sen to physically threaten or eliminate his rivals.
    - The personal image of Hun Sen, which may deteriorate as a consequence of the exposure, before the forthcoming election, of past scandals or crimes showing the involvement of the Prime Minister (1997 grenade attack, murder of Piseth Pilika).
    - The ultimate strength of the Sam Rainsy Party, whose President has declared his categorical refusal to join any government led by Hun Sen, which could lead to a political stalemate if the SRP gets 37 parliamentary seats or over in the future National Assembly (the quorum is 87 parliamentarians out of 123).
On the basis of the above factors, the CPP will reassess the situation in February 2003 and its broader-based Central Committee will choose the party’s final candidate for the premiership.         

27 September 2002

More about the King’s possible abdication (2)
Today another source from the Royal Palace confirmed that King Norodom Sihanouk has effectively prepared an abdication letter. Another reason behind the King’s decision to write this letter (KI, 25 September 2002) is related to the succession issue. As a responsible monarch, the King wants the issue to be addressed while he is still alive in order to ensure a smooth transition and the preservation of the monarchical institution after his death.
Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose Cambodian People’s Party controls the Throne Council that will elect the successor to the present King immediately after his demise, does not want the issue to be raised now because he wants to pose himself as a prospective kingmaker in order to intrigue with some members of the royal family to serve his present political interests. He approaches the interested royals separately and promises the throne to each of them. Prince Norodom Ranariddh was the first to swallow the bait. The King is not amused by this kind of intrigue that makes some royals lose their dignity and will devaluate the monarchy to the point of jeopardizing the survival of the institution after his death. He was disappointed by the refusal, a few months ago, by the National Assembly presided over by Prince Norodom Ranariddh acting under the instructions of Hun Sen, to examine a draft law submitted by opposition parliamentarian Son Chhay aimed at clarifying the succession rules and making the succession process more transparent and more predictable.
The King’s abdication letter (or the only fact that one knows that such a letter has been written and can be published anytime) may be a means to force Hun Sen to accept that the succession issue be immediately addressed. 

Prince Sirivudh draws little attention in the US (1)
Funcinpec Secretary General Prince Norodom Sirivudh, who has been visiting the US for more than a week as a representative of Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh, has received at best a lukewarm welcome from Cambodian Americans, who apparently show less and less interest for the royalist party. In Long Beach (California), organizers expected some 300 people at a reception in his honor. Only 100 showed up, expressing more curiosity than enthusiasm. Prince Sirivudh’s image has dramatically deteriorated over the last two years. He is broadly perceived now as a weak and incompetent leader, being unable to distance himself from Prince Ranariddh and to help stop the disintegration of Funcinpec.

25 September 2002

King may abdicate (3)
King Norodom Sihanouk a few days ago wrote an abdication letter that could be made public anytime. The King is very angry with Prime Minister Hun Sen who has severely reprimanded the monarch following a royal message from Beijing dated 11 August 2002 in which the King indirectly but vehemently criticized the government for massive deforestation leading to floods and droughts, prevailing lawlessness, economic disaster, deteriorating living conditions for farmers who more and more often have turned into beggars. In another statement from Beijing dated 14 September 2002 (KI, 24 September 2002), the King briefly evoked the possibility of his abdication.
A major constitutional crisis is looming.

24 September 2002

Prince Ranariddh deeply depressed (1)
Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh is presently deeply depressed by developments in his party, which seems to be disintegrating. He was particularly shocked by the message of his father the King issued on September 14, the very day Funcinpec leaders started a 2-day “strategic meeting” in Sihanoukville. In his message (in French), the King emphasizes a crucial point, which just demolishes the very foundations of the royalist party: “Certain persons say that Funcinpec still belongs to me because I am its ‘Papa’ who has created it”, the King writes. The rest of the King’s message can be summarized in one sentence: “I have nothing to do now and don’t want to be associated in any way with this party”. The King very appropriately chose his words and the timing for uttering them loudly. His message was a real slap on Ranariddh’s face. The King is worried that the collapse of Funcinpec would lead to the end of the monarchy because Prince Ranariddh, who extensively uses the name of the King for his personal benefit to cover his weaknesses and corruption, fatally discredits the monarchy with his poor leadership and increasingly bad image.
Prince Ranariddh did not attend the first day of the Sihanoukville meeting, pretending to suffer from an eye infection. He came only on the second day, when many participants, including his most vocal critics, had already left. 

Nhek Bun Chhay in a difficult position (2)
Funcinpec Deputy Secretary General Nhek Bun Chhay is in a difficult position within his party following accusations that he entertains good relationship with opposition leader Sam Rainsy, whom he reportedly last met in secret in Thailand last weekend. It is not sure now whether Prince Ranariddh would maintain him as Funcinpec top-of-the-list candidate for Battambang province. He may even lose his other positions as Funcinpec Deputy Secretary General and Second Vice-President of the Senate. CPP Prime Minister Hun Sen is very worried about the possibility of Nhek Bun Chhay joining Sam Rainsy. This would precipitate the fall of Funcinpec and provide a tremendous boost to the Sam Rainsy Party. Hun Sen is considering re-utilizing or reviving a plot he fabricated in September1998 in Siem Reap province in the form of an assassination attempt on him, to accuse Nhek Bun Chhay of being involved in a terrorist act. Sam Rainsy Party activist Sok Yoeun is also allegedly involved in the plot (KI, 22 September 2002). In a confession that Sok Yoeun was forced to read in October 1999 (in a hotel room in Bangkok under the threat of an agent working for the CPP), there is a reference to some (Funcinpec) army generals who allegedly masterminded the assassination attempt, along with Sam Rainsy. Hun Sen and the tribunal under his orders could specify now that one of those generals was Nhek Bun Chhay. This would be a very timely and very Machiavellian accusation that could kill several innocent people with one stone.              

22 September 2002

Sok Yoeun's life threatened in Thai prison (3)
According to a human rights organization based in Thailand, Sok Yoeun, the Cambodian fugitive accused by Hun Sen of having attempted to assassinate the Prime Minister in 1998 and detained in a Thai prison pending the result of a lawsuit initiated by the Phnom Penh government aiming at the extradition of the fugitive, could be assassinated in prison. Sok Yoeun, who has been declared a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International, has been granted political asylum status by the UNHCR in Bangkok and his whole family have been resettled in Finland. The Sok Yoeun’s case has been apparently fabricated by Hun Sen with the intention to arrest Sam Rainsy and other opposition leaders, since Sok Yoeun was a SRP activist. The Thai government is embarrassed by this case because they are torn between two conflicting considerations: On the one hand, allow Sok Yoeun to join his family in Finland following requests from many human rights organizations and foreign governments, and on the other hand, please or appease Hun Sen who would lose face if Sok Yoeun is recognized as innocent and allowed to leave for a third country. Unable or unwilling to make a decision with far-reaching political and diplomatic repercussions, the Thai government can only buy time by making the lawsuit drag on. They would appeal any verdict by the Criminal Court in Bangkok declaring Sok Yoeun innocent. The situation is complicated by the fact that Sok Yoeun is old with a poor health and can die prematurely in prison. But Sok Yoeun’s premature death can be convenient by allowing the Thai government to avoid making any embarrassing decision, especially jeopardizing their relationship with the Cambodian government.
In this disturbing context, there have been recent revelations by the press that in 1998 Prime Minister Hun Sen asked his Thai counterpart Chuan Leekpai to help organize the “disappearance” of some senior Khmer Rouge leaders whose trial before an international tribunal would cause serious embarrassment for the Cambodian government and possibly for other governments too. Back to Sok Yoeun now, it is possible that, at a lower level, officials from the Hun Sen government have approached some officials from the Thai government to help organize the “disappearance” of the Cambodian detainee. The above-mentioned Thai human rights organization is in possession of clues showing that Sok Yoeun can effectively be assassinated (for instance poisoned) in jail. The UNHCR offices in Bangkok and Phnom Penh have been alerted.

21 September 2002             

Hun Sen and Ranariddh had to cancel their scheduled trips abroad (2)
Prime Minister Hun Sen and National Assembly President Prince Norodom Ranariddh had initially planned to visit several countries in September, October and November this year. But both of them had to cancel their scheduled trips abroad by putting forward the same excuse: They have to deal with severe floods in Cambodia. But KI is in a position to expose the real reasons behind their decisions not to leave Cambodia for the time being.
Hun Sen first wanted to go to South Africa to attend a world conference on poverty and environment earlier this month in Johannesburg. But he was finally advised not to attend the conference because he would draw participants' attention to the unprecedented deforestation in Cambodia, which can be associated with the unprecedented droughts and floods affecting our country. Hun Sen also wanted to go to New York in October or November to attend some sessions at the United Nations and to visit his newly acquired $3-million property in Long Island (KI, 22 August 2002). But he has finally decided not to go to the US this year because the political climate there is not favourable for such a visit: The Khmer Rouge trial negotiations with the UN are stalled, Cambodia is more and more perceived in the US as a lawless country because of scandals related to human and drug trafficking, flag of convenience, political assassinations, etc. The Prime Minister's wife Bun Rany has recently spent a month at their beautiful Long Island property.
With regard to Prince Ranariddh, he has cancelled his trip to the US for more personal reasons:  American Congressmen have sent him negative messages (KI, 24 August 2002) and some Cambodian Americans who used to be Funcinpec supporters have indicated that they would welcome him with tomatoes and rotten eggs if he dares to face Cambodian communities such as those in Long Beach (California) and Lowell (Massachusetts) following his poor leadership in handling Funcinpec internal problems (You Hockry vs Khan Savoeun case, election-related issues, corruption-based appointments, etc).

Hun Sen’s prediction (or plan) about the Sam Rainsy Party starts to materialize (2)
Prime Minister Hun Sen is making every effort to divide the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and provoke a split in the opposition party this month (KI, 22 August 2002). But his plan could not be fully implemented because Sam Rainsy was aware of it. Some elements in the ruling CPP who do not like Hun Sen and belong to the Chea Sim faction have informed Sam Rainsy about the activities of Hun Sen’s agents within the SRP. One of these agents, Kan Virak, a former CPP policeman, now a member of SRP Steering Committee and Chief of SRP Pursat Provincial Council has been unmasked. Before his forced resignation earlier this week, he managed to give an interview, without revealing his name, to Radio Free Asia denouncing the “dictatorship” of Sam Rainsy. There are two other Hun Sen’s agents infiltrated in the SRP who have received instructions to strike at a later date.        

12 September 2002

Pen Sovann's book likely to have a big impact (1)
Former Prime Minister Pen Sovann of the People’s Republic of Kampuchea who led the Vietnamese-backed forces which toppled the Pol Pot regime in 1979 and who was subsequently detained for ten years in a prison in Hanoi on the charge of "treason", has just published his first book entitled "Short Biography and the National Cause of Cambodia”. The book written in Khmer language was printed in Seattle (USA), where Pen Sovann spent several months during the last two years, and is being brought into Cambodia.
The book is likely to have a big impact on Cambodian politics because it reveals many aspects of the early years of the CPP regime. In particular, it depicts the iron fist of the Vietnamese occupying forces and the subservient and mean role played by a certain Hun Sen, who was picked by Pen Sovann to serve as Minister of Foreign Affairs. As Hun Sen’s former boss, Pen Sovann is well placed to expose facts which tend to discredit the current Prime Minister. Pen Sovann asserts that the young and ambitious Hun Sen always wanted to please the Vietnamese to the detriment of Cambodia’s national interest, for instance by approving the seizure of portions of Cambodian territory and the plunder of Cambodia’s riches by the Vietnamese, while insisting on allowing a massive Vietnamese immigration into Cambodia. On 2 December 1981, it was Hun Sen (and another member of the CPP Politburo Say Phou Thang) who led a group of Vietnamese soldiers to arrest Pen Sovann at his house. It was Hun Sen who read to Pen Sovann the sentence pronounced by the Politburo: “(…) The Politburo of the Cambodian Revolutionary People’s Party decided to dismiss comrade Pen Sovann from all his positions and to send him to a detention centre in Hanoi (…).”
More importantly for the forthcoming legislative election in 2003, Pen Sovann can weaken the CPP’s propaganda centred around the liberation of the Cambodian people from Pol Pot on the glorious day of 7 January 1979. In his capacity as the country’s top leader at that time cumulating the positions of Secretary General of what was the equivalent of a Communist Party, Prime Minister, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Pen Sovann is the best placed politician to legitimately claim the credit for the historic event of 7 January 1979. With a skilful campaign, he can divide the CPP votes, and can indirectly favour the Sam Rainsy Party. The CPP has always been worried by the possibility of Pen Sovann joining Sam Rainsy. In his book, Pen Sovann reveals that the CPP, which had appointed him as an adviser for Takeo province upon his return from Vietnam in 1992, dismissed him from that position on 10 November 1995 and virtually expelled him from the party because they (groundlessly) accused him of joining the Khmer Nation Party formed on 9 November 1995 under the leadership of Sam Rainsy. A few months before the last legislative election in1998 the Khmer Nation Party became the Sam Rainsy Party, which is now the sole opposition party in Parliament. In Pen Sovann’s book, there is a chapter entitled “Establishment of a friendly relationship with the opposition party in order to truly respect the will of the people.” Pen Sovann expresses his gratitude to Sam Rainsy for making all arrangements and providing all facilities allowing him to make his first visit to the USA in August 2000. The two politicians continue to entertain a good relationship, but there is no hint of an alliance yet.

26 August 2002

Doubt cast on Cambodia's economic prospects and the role of the World Bank  (1)
An unusually critical report on the performance of the Cambodian government and the role of the international financial institutions (IFI) is circulating among donor countries, which seem now more and more cautious about Cambodia's economic prospects. Here are some extracts from the "Sensitive Draft" dated February 2002: "Cambodia's fiscal performance over the past two years indicates that it is on track with its IMF and World Bank programs. It is not clear, however, whether these programs will achieve their goals in the areas of structural and governance reform. The fiscal targets of these programs are extremely modest, and do little to make revenue and spending streams currently outside the budget more transparent. The Cambodian government is not making the strides it needs to make in the area of governance to enhance accountability and increase revenues. The IMF-sponsored fiscal policy has given a stable currency, but little else to show for the country's efforts. Politically difficult but essential structural and governance reforms are getting bogged down, and there is a risk that in the end, the  Cambodian government will not use the IFI's assistance as intended. Cambodia may emerge from its IMF and World Bank programs deeper in debt, but little further down the road toward fiscal security and good governance."

Norodom Chakrapong met with Sam Rainsy (1)
Prince Norodom Chakrapong, a son of King Norodom Sihanouk, who has recently founded a political party named Norodom Chakrapong Proleung Khmer (or Khmer Soul), met last week with opposition leader Sam Rainsy. Both confirmed their "good relationship". Even though the two parties did not mention any formal alliance, there is apparently an objective alliance between the two: Chakapong wants to move closer to Sam Rainsy to benefit from the latter's good image, whereas Sam Rainsy may think that Chakrapong can weaken further Funcinpec led by Prince Norodom Ranariddh, who capitalises on the fact that he is a son of the respected King, which Chakrapong also will be doing as a rival party leader, therefore splitting the voices of the die-hard royalists.

Hun Sen constantly informs Ranariddh about Funcinpec dissidents' movements (2)
Thanks to Hun Sen's secret police which keeps a close watch on all suspicious politicians, Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh is being kept constantly informed about any movements by Funcinpec dissidents. After a phone conversation with Hun Sen last week, Ranariddh decided to fire Interior Secretary of State Kieng Vang, Senator Kem Sokha and National Assembly Member Keo Remy because they met in secret with opposition leader Sam Rainsy. The firings have not taken place yet because of a strong opposition from Funcinpec Secretary General Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Deputy Secretary General Nhek Bun Chhay.

24 August 2002

Ranariddh not welcome in Washington (2)
Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh, who has asked to meet with several Congressmen during his visit to the US next month, has been informed that he would not be welcome on Capitol Hill by those who used to support him. He is now perceived as being too subservient to CPP Prime Minister Hun Sen and seems to have lost his democratic and leadership credentials in the eyes of many US Congressmen who care about Cambodia.

Mary Robinson urges Funcinpec and CPP leaders not to expel parliamentarians (1)
During her visit to Cambodia earlier this week, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson raised various issues with Cambodian leaders. One among the least publicized issues is related to the expulsion of parliamentarians at the initiative of their respective political parties (Funcinpec with Sam Rainsy in 1995, CPP with four senators earlier this year). Robinson is particularly aware of the case of Funcinpec Assembly member Keo Remy who can face expulsion because of his critical views about the leadership of Prince Norodom Ranariddh.

22 August 2002

Say Chhum will replace Chea Sim as CPP President (2)
CPP top leaders are on the verge of reaching a power-sharing agreement whereby Say Chhum (presently Secretary General) will replace current President Chea Sim, who will soon retire for health reasons. In exchange for the party chairmanship going to Say Chhum according to Chea Sim’s wish, party Vice-President Hun Sen will be nominated CPP candidate for Prime Minister for the upcoming legislative election scheduled for July 2003.

King urges Prince Sirivudh to leave Funcinpec (2)
King Norodom Sihanouk has recently urged his half-brother Prince Norodom Sirivudh to leave his position as Funcinpec Secretary General and to come to work at the Royal Palace to help do the monarch’s everyday work.

Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) heading for trouble (2)
At a recent meeting of the Council of Ministers, Prime Minister Hun Sen predicted that the SRP would be in serious trouble in September this year due to internal dissensions leading to a split.

Hun Sen buys a property in the USA (3)
Earlier this year Prime Minister Hun Sen bought a property at Long Island in the US State of New York. He plans to visit his newly acquired property during his next visit to the USA scheduled for November this year.

French group Vinci considers withdrawing from Cambodia (3)
Evoking a breach of contract by the Cambodian government, French largest construction group Vinci in charge of the extension/modernization of Phnom Penh and Siem Reap international airports, is considering a plan to withdraw from Cambodia. A Malaysian group (Muhibbah) and a Thai group (Bangkok Airways) are competing to replace the French.

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