KHMER INTELLIGENCE

Khmer Intelligence (KI) is a non-government organisation whose objective is to collect sensitive information from non-easily accessible sources to help Khmer and foreign observers better follow and understand the situation in Cambodia. KI finds out what is behind the latest news and news to come. For security reasons KI must preserve anonymity for its informants. Information is classified according to five levels of reliability: Official or Semi-Official (1), Very Reliable (2), Reliable (3), Insistent Rumour (4), Rumour (5).
News compiled by KI are posted on www.khmerintelligence.org
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28 December 2003

Cambodia moving backward (1)
According to statistics recently released by the UNDP, Cambodia is the only country in the world where both mortality rate and illiteracy rate have increased over the last ten years. This is an appalling record, which irrefutably shows that Cambodia is moving backward in spite of a massive and continuous international assistance.
The increase in mortality rate (for 1,000 live births, up to 200 babies/children will die before they reach five years old) shows the failure of the health system associated with worsening poverty and poor public education. The increase in illiteracy rate (63 percent of the adult population cannot read and write properly) reflects the failure of the education system due to incompetence and corruption of decision makers, which bodes ill for the nation’s development in an increasing world competition based on knowledge and new technologies. Unemployment rate currently exceeds 50 percent; at least one-third of Cambodians do not have enough to eat; and 45 percent of Cambodian children suffer from stunted growth due to malnutrition.
The destruction of Cambodia’s human resources through tragic mismanagement of the health and education sectors shows the irrelevance of the existing political system and the failure of the current development approach by international financial institutions (World Bank, ADB, IMF).
For misallocation of public funds, see KI, 21 December 2003: “How the Finance Ministry fools the IMF”.  

23 December 2003

US Senate votes funds for opposition in Cambodia (1)
On October 30, 2003, the US Senate passed H.R. 2800 (Senate – November 03, 2003) containing the following provision: “Of the funds appropriated by this Act under the heading ''Economic Support Fund'', $7,000,000 shall be made available (...) for assistance for democratic opposition political parties in Cambodia.”

Singer shot by Vietnamese death squad (3)
Popular singer Touch Srey Nich, who was shot three times by unknown assailants in late October and is now paralyzed, was the target of a Vietnamese death squad – operating under the protection of the Phnom Penh government – who attempted to assassinate her because she was singing and promoting patriotic songs such as “Chun Cheat Khmer” (We are the Cambodian Nation) and songs in favor of Kampuchea Krom (Cambodian Southern provinces annexed by Vietnam in 1949). This latest information clashes with rumors reported previously (KI, 24 October 2003: "Rumors about the shooting of Touch Srey Nich").

Pro-government and pro-opposition newspapers on the internet (1)
The two most prominent pro-government newspapers (“Rasmei Kampuchea” or Light of Cambodia, and “Koh Santepheap” or Island of Peace) and the two most prominent pro-opposition newspapers (“Samleng Youvechun Khmer” or The Voice of Khmer Youth, and “Moneaksekar Khmer” or The Khmer Conscience) can now be read everyday on the internet (http://cambodiapolitics.org).

21 December 2003

Breakdown and weight of international assistance (2)
In 2002, international assistance to Cambodia amounted to some USD 600 million, with the following breakdown:
- USD 265 million through the government (mainly for capital expenditures, representing 38 percent of the State budget totaling USD 693 million).
- USD 200 million to non-government organizations (there are more than 1,000 NGOs operating in Cambodia, many of which offer basic public services normally provided by the State).
- USD 135 million in the form of fees, salaries and fringe benefits to foreign experts (many of whom can/should be replaced by Cambodians).
If we combine expenditures by government and NGOs (693 + 200 = 893), corresponding international assistance (265 + 200 = 465) covers 52 percent of what would be the State budget in a normal country where the State is financially responsible for all basic public services. 

How the Finance Ministry fools the IMF (2)
From January to October 2003, government expenditures reached 75 percent of their budgeted amount for the whole year. But spending pattern considerably varied according to ministries and sectors, showing serious irregularities to the detriment of social sectors, which is contrary to government commitments made to the international donor community. Uncontrolled spending by the Ministry of Finance reached 175 percent of its legal ceiling, versus only 58 percent for the Ministry of Education, 43 percent for the Ministry of Health, and 36 percent for the Ministry of Rural Development (KI, 03 December 2003: “Caretaker government faces worsening financing crisis”).
Like in previous years, the invoked “shortage of funds” at the National Treasury applies only to social ministries since other ministries (such as the Ministry of Finance) that divert funds for the CPP and corrupt government officials, benefit from “special arrangements” that the IMF fails to understand (KI, 26 October 2003: “CPP diverts State revenues under the nose of the IMF”).
Subtle tricks are implemented to divert government revenues in US dollars (telephone, civil aviation, tourism, land and forest concessions, customs duties). At the Ministry of Finance these revenues are managed by the Foreign Currency Unit, which oversees 236 bank accounts held under the name of different ministries and institutions, out of which 17 only are known or shown to the IMF. Funds collected by certain ministries or institutions are deposited in the corresponding bank accounts (among the 219 not under IMF scrutiny) and are not transferred to the National Treasury, where there is a chronic “shortage of funds”. The available funds are used beyond any legal limit and without any transparency by the Ministry of Finance and the Office of the Prime Minister under the control of Senior Minister Sok An. At the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance easily makes the IMF office in Phnom Penh swallow government financial documents after appropriate window-dressing and after all government expenditures have become fait accompli. Misallocation of public funds (due to corruption) can only aggravate poverty.

20 December 2003

Management of air traffic shows Cambodia victim of plunder (1)
KI has obtained a copy of a secret “Contract to Build, Cooperate and Transfer of Air Traffic Control System” signed on 19 January 2001 by Hun Sen’s top adviser Sok An on behalf of the Cambodian government, and Mr. Charoenrath Vilailuck representing Samart Corp. of Thailand. The contract and subsequent supplemental agreements indicate that Samart has installed “goods and/or materials with the value of USD 5,000,000 in order to improve the performance of the system and the quality of the air traffic control services.” Regarding revenue sharing, Samart is entitled to 70 percent of the “overflight services fees” and 50 percent of the revenues from “air navigation services for landing and takeoff”.
The business is very profitable and the return on investment very high. For the third quarter of 2003 alone, “overflight services fees” amounted to USD 1,624,034 and revenues from “air navigation services for landing and takeoff” reached USD 1,488,832, making a total of USD 3,112,866, which represents a ten percent increase compared to the third quarter of 2002 (according to an internal document called “Air Navigation Report”). Therefore, over USD 12 million are collected every year, compared to an initial investment of only USD 5 million.
On top of the unfairness of the above contract, only a small portion (about 20 percent) of revenues from Civil Aviation (air traffic fees, airport taxes) that are supposed to be collected by the government, actually appears in the State budget, the rest being lost because of corruption.

Negotiations failed because of CPP’s insistence on “package deal vote” (2)
According to a statement released today by the Alliance of Democrats, “the meeting of the Working Groups of the three political parties on 17 and 19 of December 2003 failed” because the CPP, as a sine qua non for further discussions, had “persistently demanded” that the “package deal vote” it had proposed, be discussed before anything else. “The Alliance of Democrats rejects [this] concept of joint-ticket voting package”, which “blatantly violates [the] Constitution and democratic principles.” (KI, 18 December 2003: “General disapproval of CPP-proposed "package deal"”).

19 December 2003

Chea Sim is CPP’s backup candidate for Prime Minister (2)
CPP President Chea Sim is currently occupying two legally incompatible legislative positions: President of the Senate (Upper House) and Member of the National Assembly (Lower House). To duly remain President of the Senate, he should have resigned from his position of Member of the National Assembly at the latest on 15 December 2003, when the Assembly held its first plenary session of the third legislature to officially proclaim the validity of the mandate of each of the 123 newly elected parliamentarians.
But the CPP prefers to stretch the rules and let its President occupy both positions to ensure a smooth transition for the government from the second to the third legislature: In case CPP Vice-President Hun Sen is rejected by the National Assembly in his attempt to remain Prime Minister in the new government, Chea Sim will immediately be nominated the new CPP candidate for the premiership and will be definitely elected to lead the next government since the Alliance of Democrats (Funcinpec and SRP) would also support the CPP President.

“Package deal vote” intended to tie down parliamentarians from both Alliance and CPP (2)
Hun Sen had wanted Chea Sim to irreversibly resign from the National Assembly so that, within the CPP, there would be no credible alternative to him as candidate for Prime Minister (KI, 21 September 2003: “Hun Sen wants to force Chea Sim to resign from his newly won MP position”).
While all the 73 CPP parliamentarians would very likely vote for President Chea Sim to make him Prime Minister, such a unanimity is far from certain when its comes to giving support to more controversial Vice-President Hun Sen (KI, 16 November 2002: “A majority of CPP Politburo opposes Hun Sen's candidacy for the premiership”).
The strange "package deal vote" currently suggested by the CPP’s pro-Hun Sen faction (KI, 18 December 2003: “General disapproval of CPP-proposed "package deal"”) is intended to tie down not only the 50 MPs from the Alliance of Democrats but also the 73 MPs from the CPP (KI, 01 October 2003: “CPP internal pressure building up on Hun Sen to step down”), and force all the 123 parliamentarians to vote for Hun Sen to remain Prime Minister.

“Package deal vote” is the brainchild of Frenchman Claude Gour (3)
Claude Gour, a French professor of law (Université de Toulouse), now living in Cambodia, is the "top foreign expert" whom Hun Sen has hired to devise the famous “package deal vote” conceived as the current Prime Minister’s last and decisive weapon enabling him to remain in office for at least another term (KI, 18 December 2003: “General disapproval of CPP-proposed "package deal"”).

18 December 2003

Hun Sen chocked and worried by Saddam Hussein’s arrest (2)
The arrest of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein by American forces on December 13 caused chock and worry for Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, who perceives the downfall of any strongman in the world as a warning to him and a bad omen of his future. Both men came to power in 1979 and had claimed they would rule their respective countries with an iron fist, and with total impunity, for decades to come.

Hun Sen’s emissary threatens Funcinpec and SRP representatives (2)
At the December 17 meeting of the three-party working group in the Royal Palace, CPP representative Sok An, speaking mainly on behalf of Prime Minister Hun Sen, warned representatives from Funcinpec and SRP that if no amicable solution could be found to the present political deadlock, the country would face one of the three following scenarios: revolution, coup d’état, or state of emergency (suspension of the Constitution).

General disapproval of CPP-proposed “package deal” (2)
After a period of reflection, virtually all diplomats (except those from communist countries and Burma) and all Cambodian neutral observers are expressing their disapproval of, or dismay at the “package deal” proposed by the CPP to resolve the current political impasse, whereby the National Assembly would have to organize a single vote to simultaneously elect the leadership of the legislative branch of the government and that of the executive branch (KI, 06 December 2003: “Progress in government negotiations”). Such a deal would be a serious – if not fatal – setback for the democratization process in Cambodia. It would be contrary to the fundamental democratic principle of separation of powers with the corresponding “checks and balances”, which is enshrined in Cambodia’s UN-sponsored Constitution promulgated in 1993: “The legislative, executive, and judicial powers shall be separate.” (Article 51).

14 December 2003

Key agreement inapplicable (2)
The key agreement signed on November 5, 2003 in the Royal Palace by leaders of the three main political parties seems more and more inapplicable and draws strong criticism from observers.
There are four main points in the agreement concluded under the auspices of King Norodom Sihanouk:
1- Funcinpec and SRP accept in advance as Prime Minister any personality proposed by CPP. There is no more objection to Hun Sen being Prime Minister.
2- Hun Sen and CPP accept to form a three-party government [CPP, Funcinpec, SRP].
3- After presentation to the King, the CPP candidate for Prime Minister and his team will submit themselves to a vote of confidence by the National Assembly that could be favorable or unfavorable.
4- CPP accepts that Prince Norodom Ranariddh be President of the National Assembly if Hun Sen is accepted by Funcinpec as Prime Minister.

In the November 16-30, 2003 edition of Cambodge Nouveau, one can read: “The document handwritten by the King and signed by the three parties is a blend of genius and mediocrity. Why, after stating in point 1 that Hun Sen will be Prime Minister, specify in point 4 that CPP accepts that Ranariddh be President of the National Assembly ‘if Hun Sen is accepted as Prime Minister’? This is contradictory and pertains to low-class maneuvering.”
One can also note that point 3, which specifies that the vote by the National Assembly can be “favorable or unfavorable”, clashes with point 1 that points to Hun Sen as the inevitable Prime Minister. To make the situation even more confusing, Prince Ranariddh now says he doesn’t want to be President of the National Assembly, thus making point 4 meaningless and releasing Funcinpec from any commitment to support Hun Sen as Prime Minister.

CPP pondering on new government formula (3)
The CPP is pondering on a government formula most recently suggested by some officials of the Alliance of Democrats (Funcinpec and SRP), whereby Chea Sim would be Prime Minister in the next government flanked by a number of Deputy Prime Ministers, including Hun Sen. In such a face-saving formula that would break the current political deadlock, Hun Sen would remain the government’s most powerful figure as reflected by his power within the CPP, where he is “only” Vice-President “under” Chea Sim, who is in fact a powerless President.

13 December 2003

Prince Ranariddh rejects secret deal proposed by Hun Sen (3)
Earlier this month, CPP caretaker Prime Minister Hun Sen sent Funcinpec Interior Co-Minister You Hockry and Health Minister Hong Sun Huot to France to meet with Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh in order to convince the latter to form a two-party government with the CPP. The Prince was told that, as an incentive, Hun Sen would disburse USD 30 million for the Prince to use in a discretionary manner. But the Funcinpec President rejected the offer and warned that whoever acts as Hun Sen’s emissary to propose such a deal, would be excluded from the to-be-formed three-party government.
On December 8, Hun Sen warned that if the current political deadlock could not be eliminated rapidly, he would push for a two-party government, even though such an alternative would be contrary to an agreement made in November to create a tripartite government CPP-Funcinpec-SRP.

Hor Nam Hong and Kiet Chhon to retire (3)
The ruling CPP has decided not to include current Foreign Affairs Minister Hor Nam Hong and Finance Minister Kiet Chhon in the next government because of their alleged involvement in crimes committed under the Pol Pot regime. Hor Nam Hong was reportedly a Khmer Rouge prison director, and Kiet Chhon a close advisor to Pol Pot.
Earlier this month, a UN delegation visited Cambodia to lay the ground for the establishment of a special tribunal with international participation to prosecute former Khmer Rouge leaders.   

07 December 2003

More evidence of SGS/World Bank corruption (3)
According to a December 6 statement by the Cambodian opposition titled “World Bank associated with infamous SGS”, the Swiss-based service group SGS working with the Cambodian government and the World Bank in the forestry sector, has been involved in corruption scandals in several countries over the last few years (KI, 29 November 2003: “World Bank to disburse loan amid allegations of corruption”). The statement says: “The involvement of SGS in corruption known to date may be just the tip of the iceberg. As recent as late last month, SGS (Uganda) Limited was brought to court by a UK-based merchant bank, HSBC Equator Bank Plc for breach of contract (...). The bank seeks to recover its financial loss of over USD 7.9 m from the pre-shipment inspection company due to SGS's deceitful declaration (...). In another corruption case, Asia Intelligence Wire dated on 22 August 1999 revealed that SGS was banned in August 1999 from operation for five years in Ethiopia for illegal activities including tax evasion and working without proper work licenses. The statement concludes: “To promote good governance in corruption-plagued Cambodia, the World Bank should be more discerning in its selection of service providers.”

06 December 2003 

Progress in government negotiations (2)
Today, after seven hours of negotiations in the Royal Palace under the chairmanship of King Norodom Sihanouk, Cambodia’s three major political parties – CPP, Funcinpec and SRP – reached the following two-point agreement:
1- The National Assembly is to be convened for its first meeting of the Third Legislature (2003-2008), on or shortly after December 15. The session will be chaired by CPP parliamentarian Chea Soth, who is the oldest member of the new Assembly.
2- Following the first meeting of the new Assembly, the three parties are to engage in talks intended to determine the political program of the upcoming coalition government. Thereafter, there is a possibility of a "single package deal" (or “en bloc”) vote for the Assembly to simultaneously elect the leadership of the Assembly and that of the executive branch of the government.

03 December 2003

Sok Yoeun in exchange for Preah Vihear (4)
Some observers think that the Thai authorities have agreed to the Cambodian government’s request for Sok Yoeun’s extradition (KI, 30 November 2003: “Sok Yoeun could help speed up government negotiations”) in exchange for the reopening of Preah Vihear temple to tourists coming from the Thai side of the border, which is going to be announced very soon.
In a similar type of exchange, the Thai government has supposedly accepted to stop demanding further investigation into and compensation for the attack on Thai interests in Phnom Penh on January 29, 2003, in exchange for Cambodian concessions concerning the delineation of the land and sea border between the two countries. Important offshore oil and gas deposits are at stake.

Caretaker government faces worsening financial crisis (2)
For the first ten months of fiscal year 2003, when all items in the government budget should have reached 83.3 percent (or ten-twelfths) of their budgeted amounts for the whole year, domestic revenue reached only 68 percent, while total expenditure reached 75 percent, leaving an overall deficit of USD 199 million covered by international assistance for USD 167 million (Document released by the Finance Ministry: “State Budget Implementation / January-October 2003”).
Spending in the social/priority sectors (education, health, rural development) continued to decline in relative terms. Compared to the above 75 percent benchmark (actual overall spending pattern) government expenditures reached only 58 percent for education, 43 percent for health, and 36 percent for rural development. At the same time, uncontrolled spending by the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister Office) reached 99 percent, that of the Interior Ministry (Administration Sector) 146 percent, and that of the Finance Ministry 175 percent.
Ministries or institutions that usually overspend their allocated budget can do so because of “special arrangements” described previously (KI, 26 October 2003: “CPP diverts State revenues under the nose of the IMF”), whereas the “social/priority” ministries find virtually no cash at the National Treasury. Under such conditions, the State Budget for 2004 that the government has just drafted is expected to be seriously violated during its implementation next year, as is and was the case with the current 2003 Budget and the previous Budgets.
Many government employees have not been paid for several months; in many places, public services have just disappeared, leading to a worsening poverty and an increasing crime (KI, 26 November 2003: "Rising crime").             

30 November 2003

Sok Yoeun could help speed up government negotiations (3)
On November 28, the Thai Supreme Court decided to grant the Cambodian authorities' request to extradite Sok Yoeun back to Cambodia (KI, 20 November 2003: “Sok Yoeun defies Hun Sen from prison”). According to Amnesty International, "two Thai television stations were tipped off by fax that a court hearing on his appeal against extradition would be held [on that day] but Sok Yoeun's own lawyer was not even formally informed". The human rights organization added that "Sok Yoeun's case is clearly highly political and normal judicial procedures have apparently not been followed."
Once back in Cambodia, Sok Yoeun will likely be forced to make false confessions that would allow the Hun Sen police to implicate SRP and Funcinpec leaders in the alleged assassination attempt on Hun Sen in Siem Reap province in September 1998. This maneuver is very timely since Sok Yoeun’s “confessions” and their legal implications drawn by the CPP-controlled judiciary will be used to pressure Funcinpec and SRP into accepting any CPP’s terms in the ongoing three-party negotiations to form a new government.

UN will stop monitoring human rights situation in Cambodia (2)
Since the signing of the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements, the human rights situation in Cambodia has been on the agenda of the United Nations twice a year: in spring at the UN Commission on Human Rights in Geneva, and in autumn at the UN General Assembly in New York.
In an attempt to strengthen its international legitimacy and improve its image, the Phnom Penh government has been trying to stop the periodic UN assessments even though the human rights situation in Cambodia remains a serious source of concern given the appalling culture of impunity from Pol Pot to Hun Sen. Thanks to a discrete diplomatic effort of Japan and some other complacent countries, the UN General Assembly will probably not include Cambodia any longer on its agenda from 2004. Then, the objective of the Phnom Penh government will be to prevent the UN Commission on Human Rights from discussing Cambodia’s case in Geneva and, eventually, to close the UN Human Rights Office in Cambodia.

State-owned circus turned into a private nightclub (2)
The Russian Circus complex in front of the Chinese embassy has finally been turned into a vast and open nightclub run by Moeng Kompheak, a son-in-law of Prime Minister Hun Sen, who had obtained the control of the state-owned premises under most preferential conditions (KI, 01 November 2003: “Selling of State properties”). But the Chinese embassy staff is protesting against the loud and disturbing noise from the nightclub that prevents them from sleeping at night-time.

29 November 2003

World Bank to disburse loan amid allegations of corruption (2)
To replace environment watchdog Global Witness, the Phnom Penh government has appointed Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS) as forest monitor (KI, 21 November 2003: “SGS fails its duties”) in order to meet a World Bank loan requirement.
Today, the Cambodian opposition issued a statement asking the World Bank to put a USD 15 million forest-related loan contract on hold. They point out the bad reputation of SGS: “According to the Financial Times issued on 13 March 1998, SGS has admitted paying bribes of millions of dollars to secure a pre-shipment inspection contract with Pakistani government worth USD 150 million. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her husband were later convicted by the country’s High Court for receiving kickbacks of USD 4.3 million after granting the inspection contract to SGS in 1994”.
SGS has no expertise whatsoever in forest management. But corrupt Cambodian government officials have appreciated SGS’s complacency and complicity during its 10-year involvement in “pre-shipment inspection” to assist Cambodia’s Customs Department. In 2002, the Customs Department accounted for 55 percent of domestic revenue in the State budget (USD 238 million out of USD 432 million).
Over the last ten years, Cambodia’s forest has generated over USD 2 billion, ninety percent of which went to logging groups and corrupt government officials, and the remaining to the State coffers. Even though half of Cambodia’s forest has been destroyed over that period of time, the remaining forest can still generate a lot of money.
Being now in charge of both “pre-shipment inspection” and forest monitoring, SGS is in a position to most effectively help cover up (and benefit from) corruption in Cambodia’s two main sources of revenue. Granting SGS the two related contracts “is not different from allowing Dracula to take charge of the blood bank”.
In 1998, SGS which was supposed to conduct the “pre-shipment inspection” of all goods before they are loaded into ships departing from all ports in all countries trading with Cambodia (so as to report on the nature, price and quality of the goods imported into Cambodia), failed to report on a shipment of toxic (mercury-contaminated) industrial waste imported from Taiwan – a product of Formosa Plastics Corporation. The waste was dumped in Cambodia’s port city of Sihanoukville, where it caused the death of several people and a panic among the population. The fraudulent shipment was possible thanks to a widespread corruption. Formosa Plastics Corp. reportedly paid kickbacks totaling USD 5 million.
Besides the risk of encouraging corruption and aggravating poverty, the World Bank is warned against disbursing now the USD 15 million loan since it should know that the Cambodian current “caretaker government cannot commit the country to any long term loan arrangement”.

26 November 2003

Rising crime (2)
Over the last few months, the police, non government organizations and the media have reported an appalling increase in crime (KI, 20 May 2003: “Dramatic increase in crime rate”). A blatant fact in present Cambodian society: There are more and more murders, acts of banditry, robberies, rapes, violent aggressions, suicides and extra-judicial executions.
Take today for example: On the front page of Cambodia’s most popular newspaper Rasmei Kampuchea, there are only four news-related photos with big headlines. They all relate to heinous crimes. First photo: Two bloodied bodies lying on a Phnom Penh street, with the caption “These two motorcycle thieves were executed by the population who caught them”. Second photo: A dead man covered with blood, described as a “victim of robbery”. Third photo: A dead man, seen from the back, surrounded by a crowd, described as “an alleged thief killed by the police”. Fourth photo: The corpse of a man floating in a pond, with the explanation “He was killed with a knife and thrown into the water”.
Everyday, there are countless similar reports and people live in fear in the cities and the countryside alike. The increase in crime reflects serious social problems that are getting out of control: worsening poverty for the majority of the people, lawlessness, landlessness, joblessness, hopelessness.

Permit to kill (3)
Among the dubious private “Universities” that are mushrooming in Cambodia (there are already thirty of them as of today), there is one that causes particular concern: The new business-oriented “Faculty of Medicine” in Phnom Penh’s Tuol Kork district that will form “doctors” in just four year. The authorization to operate this very special school of medicine has been granted jointly by the Minister of Education and the Minister of Health.    

25 November 2003

Hun Sen revising negotiation strategy (2)
The pro-Hun Sen faction within the CPP is revising their position on the conduct of negotiation with the Alliance of Democrats with a view of forming a three-party government. Realizing that the Alliance is going to put forward though conditions they will not be able to reject easily (KI, 21 November 2003: “Alliance wants border treaties cancelled”) along with demands for reforms that would undermine the very foundations of the regime (drastic anti-corruption measures, end to impunity, transparent and clean elections), Hun Sen and his inner circle have decided to slow down the negotiation process. They have started to doubt the sincerity of the Alliance (KI, 7 November 2003: “Misunderstanding about the supposed agreement to let Hun Sen lead the forthcoming government”). In order to slow down or derail the negotiation process they adamantly reject Funcinpec’s demand that Hun Sen withdraws his defamation lawsuit against Prince Norodom Ranariddh before the beginning of any talks (KI, 19 November 2003: “Uncertainty about tomorrow’s three-party meeting”) or they ask, in exchange for such a gesture, that Prince Ranariddh apologizes to Hun Sen, which they know the prince would never do.   

23 November 2003

Hun Sen blames Sok An (3)
Caretaker Prime Minister Hun Sen has vehemently blamed his top adviser Sok An for his poor showing at the November 11 televised meeting in the Royal Palace, when representatives from the three parties were summoned by King Norodom Sihanouk to clarify their respective positions on the formation of a new government. Hun Sen reproached the powerful Minister of the Council of Ministers for not having adequately responded to Sam Rainsy, after the latter had told the King that the Alliance of Democrats wanted a “three-party government with a new prime minister” (KI, 12 November 2003: “Behind the misunderstanding about the future prime minister”). According to Hun Sen, Sok An should have pointed out that Funcinpec and SRP had already accepted, at a previous meeting under the chairmanship of the King on November 5, that he be prime minister in any three-party government. Because Sok An remained silent, the King responded to Sam Rainsy that the November 5 agreement did not imply that Hun Sen would necessarily remain prime minister in the future government, his effective appointment being contingent on a vote by the National Assembly.

CPP doesn’t want NGOs to attend talks (1)
While Funcinpec and SRP have responded positively to a demand by representatives from the civil society to take part, as witnesses, in negotiations aimed at forming a new coalition government, the CPP has officially refused to allow NGOs to attend the anticipated three-party talks. In a November 22 letter to Royal Palace Minister Kong Sam Ol (the talks are to be held in the Royal Palace), CPP Secretary-General Say Chhum wrote: “Because there are today in Cambodia so many organizations representing the civil society, we cannot allow all of them to attend our meetings.” Apparently, the CPP prefers to keep the talks secret (KI, 4 November 2003: “CPP refuses to let meeting be broadcast live on TV”).

New Japanese ambassador Takahashi (2)
Outgoing Japanese ambassador Gotaro Ogawa is leaving Cambodia on November 23 (KI, 16 October 2003: “Japanese ambassador to leave in November”). The new ambassador will be Mr. Fumiaki Takahashi, a former ambassador to Unesco, who speaks French and Khmer. He will take up his position around December 15. In the meantime the embassy will be led by chargé d’affaires Katsuhiro Shinohara.

21 November 2003

CPP plans to arrest and prosecute Kem Sokha (3)
The CPP caretaker government is planning to arrest and prosecute former Funcinpec Senator and Cambodia Center for Human Rights Director Kem Sokha, who will be accused of defaming the government and threatening public order with his intensive campaign in favor of democracy. The repressive plan will be carried out very swiftly in the coming days or weeks so that the international community will have no time to react.

Alliance wants border treaties cancelled (2)
Among the many conditions the Alliance of Democrats (Funcinpec + SRP) intends to put forward before accepting to form a three-party government with CPP, there is a demand to annul “all border treaties with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam signed in 1979 and in the 1980’s so as to ensure the respect for Cambodia’s territorial integrity as guaranteed by the 1991 Paris Peace Accords”.

SGS fails its duties (2)
Since replacing Global Witness as Cambodia’s forest monitor, the Swiss-based service group Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS) has not seen any forestry crime yet, while there has been a flow of reports on continuous illegal logging throughout the country (KI, 30 October 2003: “Hun Sen forgets his promise to donor countries”). Without any official mandate, Global Witness continues to collect evidence of unabated deforestation (Kirirom "Park", Bokor "Park", dubious concessions in Kompong Thom, Preah Vihear, Ratanakiri and Mondolkiri provinces), which is corroborated by alarming articles and testimonies published daily in Khmer-language and English-language newspapers. With complacent watchdog SGS remaining silent, no donor country has any reason to make waves.
In another field, SGS has been hired by the Cambodian government, over the past ten years, to help assess the value of imports and the amount of customs duties to be collected – a good governance measure imposed by donor countries. But here also, SGS has failed its duty and allowed a widespread corruption in the Customs Department to expand even further. 

Opposition launches new web site (1)
Cambodia’s opposition has launched a new web site that plans to publish an increasing number of documents in Khmer and English. The first documents available include results of the 27 July 2003 election with detailed figures for each of the 1621 communes, photos of the 30 March 1997 grenade attack in front of the National Assembly, book on mysteriously assassinated actress Piseth Pilika, excerpts from Khmer-language newspapers. (www.cambodiapolitics.org).

20 November 2003

Sok Yoeun defies Hun Sen from prison (2)
The former communist CPP has always tried to crush the democratic opposition by all means. The case of SRP activist Sok Yoeun is revealing. Unjustly accused of attempting to kill Prime Minister Hun Sen in 1998, Sok Yoeun flew his native Battambang province and sought refuge in Thailand in September 1999. He was arrested in Bangkok on Christmas 1999 and put in jail for six months for illegally entering the country. When he was going to be released, the Hun Sen government requested the Thai authorities to send him back to Cambodia to face charges politically invented to intimidate SRP supporters. Pending a decision by the Thai court, Sok Yoeun – who has been granted political refugee status by the UNHCR and declared a “prisoner of conscience” by Amnesty International – has been detained in prison until now. In the meantime, all his family has been resettled as political refugees in Finland.
On 19 November 2003, unknown assailants tried to burn down Sok Yoeun’s house, now occupied by his nephew, in Tuol Ta Ek commune, in the suburb of Battambang city (The Cambodia Daily, 20 November 2003). The incident happened only a few days after Amnesty International had called for the release of the old and sick Sok Yoeun to allow him to reunite with his family in Finland.
Apparently, the ruling CPP does not forget that Sok Yoeun courageously gave his house to the fledgling opposition and rose the first SRP sign in Battambang province in 1997. Since then, the opposition has continuously gained ground, especially in Battambang province, with Sok Yoeun being the symbol of the resistance to the current authoritarian regime. The results of the 1998 and 2003 elections show the counterproductive effect for the CPP of its policy of terror and persecution. Silently but victoriously in defiance of Hun Sen, the fighting spirit of Sok Yoeun helped SRP secure an absolute majority of the popular votes in his Battambang’s Tuol Ta Ek commune at the last election.

19 November 2003 

Uncertainty about tomorrow’s three-party meeting (2)
The first three-party meeting scheduled for tomorrow (KI, 18 November 2003: “Three-party meetings to be held on 20 and 21 November”) might not take place because Funcinpec has not yet received from CPP the assurance that the latter will drop a defamation lawsuit against Prince Norodom Ranariddh. [In a letter to King Sihanouk last month, Prince Ranariddh pointed out – without making any accusation – that only a few days after Prime Minister Hun Sen had threatened Funcinpec Ta Prohm Radio, a journalist from that radio station was assassinated in broad daylight]. Because the Court is in the hands of the ruling party, Funcinpec considers the ongoing lawsuit as an unacceptable threat and refuses to attend tomorrow’s meeting under such conditions. SRP says it will stick by its ally and rejects the idea of any two-party meeting.

18 November 2003

Three-party meetings to be held on 20 and 21 November (2)
The two joint working groups set up by CPP, Funcinpec and SRP will meet in the Royal Palace tentatively on Thursday, 20 November 2003 at 9.00 am for the working group in charge of parliamentary affairs, and on Friday, 21 November at 3.00 pm for the one in charge of governmental affairs.

16 November 2003

Hun Sen fighting on two fronts (2)
Caretaker Prime Minister Hun Sen is reportedly very anxious about the ultimate vote by the National Assembly to confirm or deny him the right to remain prime minister in the next government. For a man with a heavy past like Hun Sen, losing power means losing everything, because power – especially power to control the police and the judiciary – is synonymous with impunity.
Not only Hun Sen is not assured that at least nine National Assembly members from Funcinpec and/or SRP would vote for him so as to secure him a two-thirds majority support (73 + 9 = 82), but he is not even assured that all the 73 CPP parliamentarians would vote for him given the split within the ruling party over his candidacy (KI, 01 October 2003: “CPP internal pressure building up on Hun Sen to step down”). This explains why Hun Sen is so eager to conclude a political deal with the opposition Alliance of Democrats, which would consists in a "package" or a sharing of top government positions among political leaders from the three parties, prior to any problematic vote of confidence by the National Assembly. Overall, the personal position of Hun Sen is shakier than most observers have thought (KI, 21 September 2003: “Many diplomats are revising their assessment of Cambodia’s political situation”).

Cambodia’s population has reached 13.8 million (3)
Latest figures from the Interior Ministry show that Cambodia’s population has now reached 13.8 million versus 12 million in 2000. There is no explanation for the accelerating increase: natural demographic growth or immigration? Statistics are scarce and not very reliable, which is a problem for the rule of law. There is no organized registry office (such as the “bureau d’état civil” under the French colonial rule and the Sangkum Reastr Niyum) at the commune level, where the local authorities can deliver any personal identification documents to any applicants in exchange for bribes (this incidentally explains why Cambodia has become a safe haven for criminals/terrorists from all over the world who need to falsify their identities).
Two essential pillars of the rule of law are missing in Cambodia: a reliable system to identify citizens, and a reliable system to identify land. These shortcomings have led to serious irregularities and abuses as evidenced by the problems of ghost soldiers, ghost civil servants, diversion of state revenues, illegal selling of State assets, illegal immigration, election manipulation, land grabbing, increasing landlessness, and poverty aggravation (KI, 01 November 2003: "Selling of State properties"; 17 October 2003: "Eighty percent of the land belong to the State").
Donor countries have technically and financially encouraged the government to issue a computerized and standardized “Cambodia Citizen Identification Card” to some 6 million citizens from 18 year-old up. But for political reasons (CPP strength rests on lawlessness) and other reasons linked to corruption, the authorities are dragging their feet: only 2 million cards have been issued over the last eight years.

Spending in social sectors lags further behind target (1)
According to the latest figures released by the Ministry of Finance (“State Budget Implementation / January-September 2003”), the government is facing a $209 million budget deficit for the first nine months of this year. This unusually large deficit is financed by international assistance for $155 million (covering a large portion of capital expenditures), and by domestic financing for $54 million (corresponding roughly to the portion of capital expenditures not financed by international assistance).
Spending in the social/priority sectors (education, health, rural development) continued to decline in relative terms. While on 30 September 2003, government expenditures should have reached 75 percent of their budgeted amounts for the whole year, they reached only 52 percent for education, 38 percent for public health, and 31 percent for rural development. With such a spending pattern, all budget forecasts become meaningless and  poverty can only worsen.
Expenditures in the social/priority sectors are notably below target not only because State domestic revenues are themselves below target (60 percent instead of 75 percent) but also and mainly because those sectors do not benefit from “special arrangements” and “unofficial clearing systems” to compete successfully for scarce resources at the National Treasury, contrary to CPP-manipulated and corruption-plagued sectors (KI, 26 October 2003: “CPP diverts State revenues under the nose of the IMF”).           

15 November 2003 

King Sihanouk wants Queen Monineath to succeed him (1)
King Norodom Sihanouk issued today a statement asking that, if he dies suddenly while Cambodia still has no legal government, Queen Monineath Sihanouk be appointed Cambodia’s Queen symbolizing the Monarchy – in the same manner as Queen Mother Sisowath Kossomak Nirireath symbolized the Throne between 1960 and 1970, while then Prince Norodom Sihanouk was Head of State.
King Sihanouk suggests that, in such a politically unclear/unstable situation, CPP President Chea Sim be appointed “acting” Head of State, until a new reigning Monarch (probably Norodom Sihamoni) is chosen by the Throne Council in line with the Constitution.
Over the past few months, King Sihanouk has expressed concern for the future of the Monarchy after his demise, and has pointed that constitutional provisions about the royal succession procedure need to be further detailed.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Hun Sen has shown unwillingness to talk about the royal succession issue because he seems to have his own agenda (KI, 9 October 2002: “Hun Sen wants to be Head of State”). The King’s latest suggestion doesn’t clash with Hun Sen’s plan, at least during a transitional period, knowing that Hun Sen will try to eliminate Chea Sim in order to become a powerful Head of State.         

14 November 2002 

Funcinpec Ministers boycott Cabinet meeting (2)
Caretaker prime minister Hun Sen expressed anger this morning when he realized the boycott by all Funcinpec ministers and secretaries of state of the weekly Cabinet meeting at the Office of the Council of Ministers. On November 9, at the ceremony commemorating the 50^th anniversary of Cambodia’s independence, he warned all government members from the CPP and Funcinpec to attend the Cabinet meeting at any cost.

Launch of a Khmer-language web portal (1)
An entirely Khmer-language website, the Community Information Web Portal (www.cambodiacic.org), was launched today, which contains a wide range of information on development topics, such as agriculture, health, education, environment, economic development, human rights, and many other fields. It supports a network of 22 Community Information Centers around Cambodia. The Community Information Center project is funded by USAID through The Asia Foundation.
The Web Portal's key goals are to:
- Provide access for Cambodians nationwide, especially those in the provinces, to news and information on a wide range of development-related topics.
- Allow NGOs, government institutions, development-related organizations, media organizations and journalists and political parties to provide information to people throughout Cambodia, and share information between their offices throughout the country and between organizations.
- Promote the use of Information and Communication Technologies for research, networking and information exchange.

12 November 2003 

CPP’s miscalculations (2)
The CPP leadership internally acknowledges that they have miscalculated developments following last July’s election, on two points:
1- Instead of becoming an even more docile partner after its electoral losses (from 43 parliamentary seats to 26), Funcinpec reasserts its personality with an unexpected determination to go its own way.
2- In spite of their bitter personal conflict in a recent past, Funcinpec President Prince Norodom Ranariddh and opposition leader Sam Rainsy decided to join hands and form an unbelievable “Alliance of Democrats” against CPP Prime Minister Hun Sen, whom they want to topple.
The two miscalculations destroyed the CPP’s plan to form another CPP-dominated government with a very weak Funcinpec as coalition partner from 2003 to 2008. This was also the scenario that many diplomats in Phnom Penh had wrongly put forward in their reports to their respective governments.

Behind the misunderstanding about the future prime minister (2)
The government framework agreement concluded under the auspices of King Norodom Sihanouk on November 5 had caused many observers to misunderstand Funcinpec and SRP’s position on the appointment of a new prime minister (KI, 7 November 2003: “Misunderstanding about the supposed agreement to let Hun Sen lead the forthcoming government”).
As soon as they formed their “Alliance of Democrats” in early August, Funcinpec and SRP started to formulate their demand for a “three-party government without Hun Sen”. There has since been a political deadlock because Hun Sen has been adamant that he should remain prime minister.
On October 18, attempting to break the deadlock, the King came up with a proposal to share government positions among leaders of the three parties: Hun Sen would remain prime minister, Prince Ranariddh and CPP President Chea Sim would be either President of the National Assembly or President of the Senate, opposition leader Sam Rainsy would be Vice-President of the National Assembly or Deputy Prime Minister.
In an October 25 letter, Sam Rainsy told the King that allocating individual government positions to political leaders is less important than defining government principles and a platform acceptable by all parties. This could be interpreted as a softening of the Alliance's no-Hun Sen position.   
Subsequently, especially at the November 5 meeting at the Royal Palace, Prince Ranariddh said that a Funcinpec president of the National Assembly would accept to forward to the King the name of any candidate for prime minister nominated by the CPP (but that the candidate’s actual election to the position of prime minister would depend on a subsequent vote by the National Assembly). This also could be interpreted as a softening of the Alliance's no-Hun Sen position.
In fact, developing new arguments and using a slightly different rhetoric, the Alliance continues to ask for a new prime minister.     

10 November 2003

Hun Sen frees drug smugglers (1)
On 14 October 2003 Prime Minister Hun Sen intervened for the release of five customs officials who were detained on heroin smuggling charges (a 24-kg shipment of heroin from Cambodia was intercepted by Australian authorities last April). Hun Sen overruled a court’s decision to detain and investigate the suspects because the latter and many of their colleagues are financial supporters of the ruling CPP. The Customs Department is the main source of revenue for the State, whose operating network coincides with that of the CPP. Customs Department Director Pen Siman, who is brother of one of the suspects, is also the CPP treasurer (KI, 11 December 2002: “Cambodia’s mafia state”). 

A wealthy nomenklatura (2)
CPP Interior Minister Sar Kheng, who already owns and occupies four adjoining large villas on Norodom Boulevard (Phnom Penh’s Fifth Avenue), is completing another one – more spacious and more beautiful – on the other side of the Boulevard (# 100). Over the last few months, the police have forcibly sent thousands of homeless and destitute people out of Phnom Penh.

French embassy helped draft King’s speech (3)
On 6 November 2003 King Norodom Sihanouk made an unusually dithyrambic speech (with plenty of supposedly intimate details that a King would normally not go into) at a farewell party for outgoing French ambassador André-Jean Libourel. The wording and the tone of the speech were totally alien to the King’s style. A draft of the speech was reportedly written by the French embassy, which passed it on to CPP Foreign Minister Hor Nam Hong, who in turn passed it on to CPP Royal Palace Minister Kong Sam Ol, who in turn submitted the draft to the King. The King decided to be extraordinarily generous.

7 November 2003

Misunderstanding about the supposed agreement to let Hun Sen lead the forthcoming government (2)
Most observers seem to have misunderstood the implications of the so-called government agreement the three political parties (CPP, Funcinpec, SRP) signed with King Norodom Sihanouk on 5 November 2003. In fact, as shown in a statement titled “The true outcome of the summit meeting in the Royal Palace” issued yesterday by the Alliance of Democrats, Funcinpec and SRP have not committed themselves to accepting Hun Sen as prime minister in the forthcoming government. For the Alliance, there seems to be no change of position (oust Hun Sen) but only a change of tactic: While following all provisions of the Constitution and temporarily putting aside all personal considerations at the first stage of the negotiation process, the Alliance will raise the bar of conditions for a three-party government so high that either negotiations will collapse or Hun Sen will have to go.   

4 November 2003

CPP refuses to let meeting be broadcast live on TV (2)
Yesterday, SRP parliamentarian Son Chhay wrote to King Norodom Sihanouk to ask the royal permission for tomorrow’s meeting of top political leaders from the three parties, at the Royal Palace, to be broadcast live on TV. Because of the CPP’s refusal (see King's Nov. 4 letter to Son Chhay), the meeting will be held behind closed doors.

01 November 2003 

Selling of State properties (2)
The current cash-strapped caretaker government is accelerating the selling off of state-owned properties in order to finance its budget deficit (KI, 12 October 2003: “Unorthodox financing of the deficit leads to social problems”). These illegal sales are conducted in a secretive manner, as evidenced by the ongoing sale/redevelopment of the Russian Circus complex situated in front of the Chinese Embassy (Cambodge Soir, 10-11-12 October 2003: "Abandoned since the perestroika, buildings dedicated to the circus entertainment start to live again"). The complex – that could be turned into a museum, a conference hall and/or a public park – is theoretically under the control of the Ministry of Culture. Nobody knows what portion of the proceeds of the sale, if any, will be transferred to the National Treasury.

Cambodian fisherman killed by Vietnamese mob (1)
According to several witnesses, on 13 October 2003, a well organized group of about twenty Vietnamese fishermen armed with an AK47 gun, arrested a Cambodian fisherman named Ouk Mao, 33, in Roveang village, Svay Rompea commune, Kompong Leng district, Kompong Chhnang province. The Vietnamese accused Ouk Mao of stealing their fishing nets a few days before; they tied his arms and legs together and said they would punish him. The Cambodian witnesses begged the Vietnamese to release Ouk Mao, but to no avail. Ouk Mao was taken to a remote place and his body was found floating in the Tonle Sap River two days later. Even the Cambodian police is afraid of the large Vietnamese fishermen community in that area of Kompong Chhnang province (Rasmei Kampuchea, 19 October 2003, page 7; Koh Santepheap, 19 October 2003, pages 1 and 4). In 2000, at least three officials of the Fisheries Department were killed by Vietnamese fishermen while trying to inspect their boats in Kandal province.       

31 October 2003

Sam Rainsy expresses reservations about King’s plan (2)
Following King Sihanouk’s suggestion that, as a way to break the current political deadlock, Hun Sen, Chea Sim, Prince Norodom Ranariddh and Sam Rainsy take up the positions of Prime Minister, Senate President, National Assembly President and Deputy Prime Minister respectively, Sam Rainsy has recently written to the monarch to express his reservations. The substance of his message is the following: Any solution based only on position sharing in a corrupt and destructive system, carries no significance. It would be similar to "re-arranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic". Cambodia desperately needs all Khmers to wake up and help save the nation by reforming the government system for the country. This means defining appropriate government principles, institutions, mechanisms and a political platform to address the myriad of problems facing the country.

30 October 2003 

Hun Sen forgets his promise to donor countries (1)
At an important donor meeting in Tokyo in February 1999, Prime Minister Hun Sen solemnly promised he would put an end to illegal logging within two years [i.e. not later than February 2001], or he would resign from his position, as a matter of honor. He reiterated his promise a few days later, upon his return to Phnom Penh, when he was quoted as saying: “If in two years we cannot succeed in any reforms, I will resign as prime minister (...). If we cannot successfully control the corruption stemming from anarchic logging, then we cannot be qualified to govern this country.” (The Cambodia Daily, 1^st March 1999: “Hun Sen Pledges Reform or Resignation”).
Since February 2001 [i.e. the deadline Hun Sen had set himself] illegal and anarchic logging has continued unabated, as evidenced by two most recent reports by forest watchdog Global Witness (The Cambodia Daily, 24 October 2003: “Logging Plans Draw Rebuke”; and 30 October 2003: “Global Witness Says Illegal Logging Persists”).
Global Witness continues to unofficially monitor the forestry sector in Cambodia in spite of having had its contract abruptly terminated by Hun Sen (KI, 25 April 2003: “Homage to Global Witness”).
Commenting an article in Cambodge Soir (21 October 2003) about ongoing food shortage in several areas following successive floods and droughts, King Norodom Sihanouk wrote: “[These are] tragic consequences of deforestation” (Bulletin Mensuel de Documentation, 13-23 October 2003).  

28 October 2003

Another warning from the King to donor countries (1)
In a today’s interview with BMD published on his Web site (www.norodomsihanouk.info), King Norodom Sihanouk gives the donor community another warning about the legal status of the current Phnom Penh government (see KI, 22 October 2003: “King cautions donor countries and international organizations”).
- BMD: “Your Majesty, a high-ranking European diplomat has asked you whether “Donors” (i.e. countries providing various forms of assistance to Cambodia) could sign treaties (sic) and other agreements with the present government of Samdech Hun Sen...”.
- NS: “I gave the following answer to His Excellency: ‘To be valid, treaties and agreements must be ratified by the new National Assembly (3^rd Legislature). King Sihanouk will not be able to validate them in his capacity as Head of State if these treaties and agreements are not ratified beforehand by the National Assembly-3^rd Legislature. Besides, the present RCG [Royal Cambodian Government] of Samdech Hun Sen can only deal with everyday matters [power limitation on a caretaker government].’.”

Over the last few weeks King Sihanouk has hinted at the illegality and unconstitutionality of the present government and has cautioned donor countries and international organizations against dealing with such an illegitimate government. The King’s above interview could also be a reply to an article published in today’s edition (dated 29 October 2003, pages 1 and 3) of Khmer-language newspaper Rasmei Kampuchea, which is considered as a mouthpiece for the ruling CPP. Using specious arguments, the writer claims that the present Hun Sen government is not a caretaker government and can do business as usual.   

Khmer fishermen complain about Vietnamese intrusion (2)
Cambodian fishermen in the maritime provinces of Kampot, Sihanoukville and Koh Kong are complaining about Vietnamese intrusion on their livelihoods. Since the beginning of this year, an increasing number of large and modernly equipped fishing boats from Vietnam have been heavily fishing in Cambodian territorial waters. Using illegal equipment and destructive fishing techniques that lead to massive and indiscriminate catches (such as intense electric light that attracts, blinds and kills all fishes in a determined area), they deprive small Cambodian fishermen of their traditional livelihoods while causing the depletion of fish stocks in the portion of the sea under our control. Cambodian authorities (Navy, Police, Fisheries Department) turn a blind eye to these practices because they are submitted to corruption and/or political threat.

Alliance would gain seats if Funcinpec and SRP merged into one single party (2)
A sensitivity analysis based on the results of the 2003 parliamentary election shows that:
1- Funcinpec and SRP would obtain one to six additional seats each, if a different formula for seat allocation were applied (see KI, 19 August 2003: “A manipulated proportional representation system”). The CPP would lose three to eleven seats with a different formula because the one currently used (Jefferson/d’Hondt) favors the biggest party to a disproportional extent (Chart 1: CPP against Funcinpec and SRP).
2- With the current formula, if Funcinpec and SRP formed one single party, the CPP’s lead over a united opposition would be notably reduced by ten seats. A different formula would not produce any significant change for the Alliance but would cause the CPP to lose more seats to the benefit of smaller parties (Chart 2: CPP against the Alliance of Democrats).       

CHART 1: CPP AGAINST FUNCINPEC AND SRP 

(1) Formula of the highest average (Jefferson/d’Hondt) as used by NEC in 1998 and 2003.
(2) Formula of the highest average (Balinski/Young) as first proposed by NEC in 1998.
(3) Formula of the highest remainder (Hare/Niemeyer) as used by UNTAC in 1993.  

CHART 2: CPP AGAINST THE ALLIANCE OF DEMOCRATS 

27 October 2003

ADB engaged in dubious projects (3)
The Asian Development Bank, which is Cambodia’s largest creditor with total loans exceeding $ 500 million, is engaged in several dubious projects entailing a misuse of international financial assistance: road building projects (see KI, 25 April 2003: “Government corruption in the implementation of road building projects”), establishment of the National Audit Authority – which is supposed to be the equivalent of the General Accounting Office in the USA (see KI, 12 December 2002: “A totally inactive National Auditing Authority”), technical assistance to prepare the ground for the privatization of State-owned rubber plantations (in the late 1990’s the French government spent $ 5 million for a similar assistance, which was totally useless since the CPP is not willing to relinquish the control of the lucrative plantations it runs in a secretive manner).
ADB local representative Urooj Malik has been in charge of Cambodia for more than ten years, which runs counter the common administrative requirement to rotate duties and responsibilities as a means to fight corruption (see KI, 22 December 2002: “Corruption at the World Bank”).

Donors express concern about budget transparency (1)
On 20 October 2003 the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank jointly released a report detailing problems with the budget process and making recommendations on how to ensure that money allocated for development gets to the field where it belongs. The report calls on the Cambodian government to make expenditures more transparent and improve financial accountability (see KI, 12 October 2003: “Increase in government budget deficit due to election campaign”; KI, 10 October 2002: “Serious and recurrent irregularities in the implementation of the State budget”).  

26 October 2003

CPP diverts State revenues under the nose of the IMF (2)
KI has recently exposed irregularities in the implementation of the State budget (see KI, 12 October 2003: “Increase in government budget deficit due to election campaign” and “Unorthodox financing of the deficit leads to social problems”). Here are some of the tricks used by CPP-affiliated government officials to divert State revenues:

- Ministry of Finance: A
- National Treasury: B
- Ministry of Rural Development (or any other Ministry requesting funds from A): C
- Army Engineering Corps (contracted by the government to build roads): D
- A CCP-friendly private company (sub-contracted by “D” to build roads): E
- Another private company that owes money to the State (e.g. an importer that must pay customs duties): F.

Just one example: “C” is responsible for the building of a road. Under normal (market) conditions the project would cost $ 1 million. But “C” is pressured to award the contract to “D” (see KI, 25 April 2003: “Government corruption in the implementation of road building projects”). “D” estimates the construction cost of the road at $ 3 million. “C” agrees with “D” and requests $ 3 million from “A”.

- 1^st step: “A” issues to “C” a $ 3 million payment note to be cashed at “B”. But there is no cash at “B”.
- 2^nd step: “C” endorses the payment note and transfers it to “D”.
- 3^rd step: “D” endorses the payment note and transfers it to “E”.
- 4^th step: “E” gets in touch with “F”, who happens to owe the State $ 3 million (e.g. customs duties), to be normally paid to “B”.
- 5^th step: “E” endorses the payment note and transfers it to “F”. In return, “F” pays $ 3 million to “E” instead of to “B”. “E” gives back $ 2 million (the inflated portion of the project cost) to “D”. “D” shares the $ 2 million corruption money with the CPP and corrupt government officials in all the concerned institutions.
- 6^th step: Officials at “B” present financial records in such a way as to make any external person wrongly believe that “A” has paid $ 3 million to “C” and collected $ 3 million from “F”, in line with specifications in the Budget Law.

The above unofficial and illegal clearing system from “A” to “F” has the following consequences:
1- It allows a systemic government corruption, including a misuse of international assistance in road building, education or health projects.
2- It conceals the real status of the implementation of the Budget Law.
3- It conceals the real cash situation at the National Treasury.
4- It leads to a distortion of the government's stated priorities and an actual neglect of the priority sectors: education, health, rural development.
 

24 October 2003

Rumors about the shooting of Touch Srey Nich (5)
The police should follow up two possible leads:
1- Hun Sen’s nephew Hun To has had a tumultuous relationship with Touch Srey Nich.
2- The wife of a wealthy CPP Central Committee member reportedly wanted to eliminate Touch Srey Nich because she (the wife) suspected her (the singer) of having an affair with her husband.

CPP tries to put the blame for the recent high-profile murders on SRP (3)
On 23 October, Interior Ministry spokesman Khieu Sopheak declared that the recent shootings of pro-Funcinpec radio journalist Chuor Chetharith and popular singer Touch Srey Nich could have been perpetrated by the same persons, or the murderers could belong to the same group. On 21 October, prime minister Hun Sen blamed some malevolent forces for “the recent, continuous type of planned murders that serve political interests and have caused the security and public order situation to become cloudy.”
The CPP is now trying to put the blame for the murderous violence on the opposition Sam Rainsy Party, starting with SRP security department head Long Ri. A plot is being organized to accuse Long Ri of being the head of a criminal group called “Kaek Slap” (or The Dead Crows). The group is allegedly involved in politically-motivated assassinations or assassination attempts, including the ones perpetrated over the last few days. The CPP has already recruited and rehearsed self-confessed Kaek Slap members who, once officially arrested and taken to the court, will accuse Long Ri of being the mastermind of the recent spate of terrorist attacks. When Long Ri himself is arrested, he will be forced to confess that he had received orders from Sam Rainsy in person to conduct the killings.
The plot is reminiscent of the case of Srun Vong Vannak, the predecessor of Long Ri at the SRP – strange coincidence –, who was arrested in 1996 and charged with organizing the murder of Mrs. Hun Sen Bun Rany’s brother-in-law Kov Samuth. At that time, Hun Sen had agreed to the elimination by his henchmen of Kov Samuth, an Interior Ministry official who was involved in drug trafficking but did not respect the code of conduct of the Mafia (KI, 27 December 2002: “Prominent CPP defector and SRP candidate escapes arrest”).

22 October 2003 

Army versus Police (3)
When Major General Dom Hak and Lieutenant Colonel Muan Sokhan were arrested on 10 October 2003 on drug trafficking charges (35 kg of heroin and 5 kg of amphetamine were seized), they were immediately taken out of the control of the Police (Interior Ministry) and placed in the custody of the Military Police (Defense Ministry). There was a standoff between the Police and the Army. The latter was eager not to expose the two high-ranking military officials to questioning by the Police, especially by the anti-drug squad, which receives assistance from the USA.
If prosecuted Dom Hak, who is a two-star general and the head of the army infantry’s intelligence unit would implicate in the drug-trafficking ring the following persons:     
- Mol Roeup, three-star general, head of the army intelligence department. 
- Meas Sophea, three star general, deputy chief of staff of the army, in charge of the infantry.
- Kun Kim, three-star general, deputy chief of staff of the army.
- Heng Borin, three-star general, commander of the Intervention Unit at the army staff headquarters.
All the four three-star generals are very close to prime minister Hun Sen.
On 20 October 2003, under pressure from Hun Sen, all drug charges were dropped against the two suspects, who were released from the Military Police headquarters in the Defense Ministry compound (see KI, 11 December 2002: "Cambodia’s mafia state").         

King cautions donor countries and international organizations (1)
In his most recent statements King Norodom Sihanouk hints at the illegality and unconstitutionality of the current Hun Sen government. He seems to caution donor countries and international organizations against dealing with such an illegitimate government.
- 19 October 2003: “The 1993 Constitution has been continuously violated. (...) The mandate of the [current] government should come to an end. (...) We are in a crisis situation.”
- 20 October 2003: “Since the reign of Lon Nol and the one of Pol Pot until now (2003), (...) foreign powers and organizations representing the power of money (Banks,  ...), using imperialist and neo-colonialist methods, have taken the control of a falsely independent Cambodia (...). The current political crisis will force the second Khmer Kingdom more profoundly further into the abyss of disgrace, for which our great and false friends will nevertheless warmly congratulate us, as they did for the “exemplary” and “marvelous” 27 July 2003 election. (...) In fact we are heading for dictatorship, State illegality and unconstitutionality (...).”

19 October 2003

King cancels three-party meeting (1)
Replying this morning to Sam Rainsy, who said in his yesterday's letter to the monarch that "no negotiation can take place under threat" (KI, 18 October 2003: "Funcinpec and SRP will not attend Monday’s meeting in the Royal Palace"), King Norodom Sihanouk told the opposition leader: "I fully understand the decision of the Sam Rainsy Party [not to attend the three-party meeting] in the face of such a tense situation." In an interview with the BMD Team this afternoon, the King resigned himself to an "indefinite postponement" of the meeting  following yesterday's assassination he described as "politically motivated".

Parliamentary election versus presidential election (2)
As an argument that he should remain prime minister, Hun Sen claims that the 2.4 million voters who voted for the CPP at the last election, actually voted for him to be prime minister in the next government – corresponding to the third legislature of the National Assembly. But pro-Chea Sim elements within the CPP disagree with Hun Sen’s argument. They stress that people who voted for the CPP in fact voted for the party as a whole, and not for any individual in particular, since this is a parliamentary election, not a presidential one. Moreover, this parliamentary election is based on proportional representation, with lists of candidates being presented by competing political parties. They also hinted that within the CPP, President Chea Sim is at least as popular as Vice-President Hun Sen. 

Parliamentary election versus plebiscite (2)
In his claim to continuous premiership based on the allegation that the 2.4 million CPP voters voted for him personally as in a plebiscite, Hun Sen faces a powerful counter-argument from non-CPP supporters. If all those who voted for the CPP wanted Hun Sen to be prime minister, conversely, all those who did not vote for the CPP did not want Hun Sen Sen to be prime minister. The 2.4 million CPP voters are outnumbered by the 2.7 million non-CPP voters (2.2 million for Funcinpec and SRP combined, and 0.5 million for twenty smaller political parties). Therefore, Hun Sen must be consistent and respect the will of the people – who have voted him out.

A personal defeat for Hun Sen in Kandal province (1)
At the July 27 election this year, Prime Minister Hun Sen was the CPP top-of-the-list candidate for Kandal province. In that province, which surrounds Phnom Penh, the CPP was beaten by its opponents represented by SRP and Funcinpec, which together collected 49.8 percent of the popular votes versus 39.9 percent for the CPP.

- CPP: 221,183 votes (39.9 percent)
- SRP: 142,312 (25.7 percent)
- Funcinpec: 133,750 votes (24.1 percent)
- Other parties: 57,067 (10.3 percent). 

In Ta Khmao commune, where Hun Sen lives and votes, the CPP suffered a humiliating def